Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
93 0x9367…fd12 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$4 (+21%) realized +$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$8
crypto 15% −$3
sports 16% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +165.4% +140.1% 50% 50% +108.8%
≤30d 3 +76.9% +60.1% 33% 33% +46.8%
≤90d 6 +29.2% +16.9% 50% 33% +25.6%
all 6 +29.2% +16.9% 50% 33% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 33% +25.6%
10% +5.7% 33% +13.6%
15% -4.5% 17% +2.6%
20% -13.8% 17% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage85d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$10 +431%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Jazz Mar 22 $1 $0 +35%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 22 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 38h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 15d
76ers vs. Jazz SELL 76ers 100¢ $1 84d
76ers vs. Jazz BUY 76ers 74¢ $1 85d
Lakers vs. Magic BUY Magic 43¢ $1 85d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Michigan Wolverines 91¢ $1 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.58 · official $9.58 (match) · 11 history records