Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
93 0x9368…f716 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%49W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$6
crypto 10% +$2
sports 3% −$15
politics 3% $0
tech 2% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 63 -0.3% -9.8% 78% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses49 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage547d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in March? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 04 $30 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 03 $2 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donnovan Clingan win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 14 $58 −$1 -1%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Apr 12 $52 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $6,050 −$6 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 09 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 30d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 99¢ $23 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $39 62d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $18 93d
Will BNB reach $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 93d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 121d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? BUY No 100¢ $39 122d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 151d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 151d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $29 151d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 180d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $29 181d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $31 182d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $16 212d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $34 212d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $19 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $29 242d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 274d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $36 274d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 300d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $24 301d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 332d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 333d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 99¢ $46 335d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 363d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 367d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.19 · official $55.19 (match) · 134 history records