Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x936a…3ee7 sports 585 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$365 (-0%) realized −$345 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%570W / 7L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4,083now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$106
14 days−$494
30 days−$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$93
other 25% +$83
crypto 10% +$85
finance 10% +$20
culture 7% +$39
politics 6% −$617
world 5% +$23
tech 4% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 140 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 429 -0.1% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.6%
all 577 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$618) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$288 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$4,083
Realized−$345
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses570 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)577 / 585
History coverage111d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 577 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? No 100¢ 100¢ $586 $585 −$1 (-0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $586 $585 −$1 (-0%)
Spread: New Zealand (-3.5) Egypt 100¢ 100¢ $585 $585 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Uruguay 100¢ 100¢ $586 $585 −$2 (-0%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Egypt? No 100¢ 99¢ $583 $582 −$1 (-0%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt? No 100¢ 99¢ $585 $581 −$5 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? No 100¢ 98¢ $586 $576 −$10 (-2%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? No 100¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $587 $0 +0%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 21 $586 +$1 +0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $587 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $587 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $587 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $586 +$1 +0%
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $584 $0 +0%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $584 $0 +0%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 21 $584 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $557 +$27 +5%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 20 $584 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Haiti? Jun 20 $584 $0 +0%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $581 +$3 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $565 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $561 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $584 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $584 $0 +0%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 20 $584 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $583 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $583 $0 +0%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 19 $583 $0 +0%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 19 $576 +$2 +0%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ Jun 19 $574 $0 +0%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 19 $562 +$4 +1%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 19 $566 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $566 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $566 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $566 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $566 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $577 $0 +0%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $582 +$1 +0%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $582 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $579 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $575 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $575 +$5 +1%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 17 $580 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $578 +$2 +0%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $578 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $580 $0 +0%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $580 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $571 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $579 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $579 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $578 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $578 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $578 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $578 $0 +0%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 17 $573 +$6 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $576 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New Zealand (-3.5) BUY Egypt 100¢ $586 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $583 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $586 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $587 4h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 100¢ $587 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $587 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $587 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $4 4h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY Belgium 100¢ $586 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? BUY No 100¢ $587 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $3 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $584 10h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $16 10h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $471 10h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $115 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $281 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $9 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $13 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $62 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $4 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $170 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $13 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,083.22 · official $4,083.22 (match) · 1923 history records