Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x936d…d215 politics 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% $0
world 33% +$5
other 26% +$1
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.1% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -8.7%
all 45 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -9.0%
10% -18.5% 2% -17.8%
15% -26.4% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage271d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $114 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $35 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $33 +$2 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $41 +$2 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $56 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $29 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 09 $29 $0 +2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 08 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 08 $18 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 08 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Oct 07 $13 $0 +2%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross less than 125% of "The Senio Sep 25 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 23 $4 $0 -4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by September 30? Sep 22 $1 $0 -20%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 22 $2 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $34 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $35 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $38 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $38 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $38 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $35 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $33 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $36 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $36 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $22 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.73 · official $33.73 (match) · 298 history records