Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:00:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x936e…473f other 311 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 173d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,551 (+0%) realized +$9,777 · open −$1,226
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate69%207W / 93L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$8,414per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$106,932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 173d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 31% −$3,954
other 23% +$11,492
politics 21% +$52,240
crypto 11% −$4,261
tech 6% −$3,876
sports 4% +$635
culture 4% −$97
world 1% −$1,812
weather 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -7.0% -15.9% 71% 18% -9.6%
≤30d 119 +4.5% -5.5% 74% 24% -10.0%
≤90d 200 -5.7% -14.7% 68% 20% -9.9%
all 300 +1.5% -8.2% 69% 21% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 21% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 13% -16.5%
15% -25.0% 9% -24.6%
20% -32.3% 5% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$2,198) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$388 vs −$326 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$106,932
Realized+$9,777
Unrealized−$1,226
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses207 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions11
Markets (closed)300 / 311
History coverage173d ⚠
Avg bet$8,414
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $100,843 $100,049 −$795 (-1%)
Will Scott Jensen win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,513 $3,517 +$5 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,373 $2,951 −$422 (-12%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Up 99¢ 98¢ $297 $296 −$2 (-1%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by December 31? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $42 $40 −$3 (-6%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $155B by June 30? Yes 54¢ 47¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-13%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17B by June 30? Yes 61¢ 54¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-12%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12B by June 30? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No 70¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by June 30? No 74¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+30%)
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 82¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by June 30? Yes 38¢ 4¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,086 −$147 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $849 −$61 -7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,910 +$90 +5%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,100 −$324 -29%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $370 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1,748 +$2 +0%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $172.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $357 +$5 +1%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $65 −$6 -10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20,148 +$261 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $187 +$53 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30? Jun 14 $163 +$2 +1%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by June 30? Jun 14 $820 +$130 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $97,863 +$271 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $270 −$52 -19%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $14 +$10 +70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $10,418 +$223 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $62 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $2,187 +$19 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $532 +$19 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $9,359 −$398 -4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $110 +$33 +30%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $12 −$6 -45%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $185 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $72 −$52 -73%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 25, 2026? Jun 11 $186 −$186 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 24, 2026? Jun 11 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $8,864 +$9 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $11,621 +$38 +0%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $174 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3,026 +$333 +11%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $570 −$534 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $164 +$35 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $637 +$171 +27%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $1,989 +$10 +0%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $362 +$2 +1%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $70,375 +$88 +0%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 07 $238 +$2 +1%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 07 $572 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $19,747 +$192 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $153 −$10 -7%
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $41B by June 30? Jun 06 $555 +$101 +18%
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by June 30? Jun 06 $451 +$143 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $834 −$120 -14%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1,700 +$144 +8%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $18B by June 30? Jun 05 $274 +$41 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 99¢ $297 47m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $42,283 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $10,601 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $39,960 2h
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17B by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $43 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,002 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,956 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $343 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,482 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $154 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $939 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $140 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $140 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $48 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $68 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 80¢ $789 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $546 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 8h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106,932.26 · official $106,932.15 (match) · 3500 history records