Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9374…3770 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day109.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$1
other 27% −$33
finance 19% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -17.3%
≤30d 2 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -17.3%
≤90d 2 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -17.3%
all 2 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 0% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 0% -25.2%
15% -32.4% 0% -32.5%
20% -39.0% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$16 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day109.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 53¢ 39¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 44¢ 61¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 13¢ 17¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 23¢ 43¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+86%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Yes 23¢ 19¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 18 $160 −$13 -8%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $222 −$20 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? BUY Yes $2 9m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 51m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 44¢ $3 1h
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s BUY Yes 35¢ $4 1h
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s BUY Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 44¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 49¢ $4 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 36¢ $32 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 36¢ $32 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 69¢ $19 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 69¢ $19 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 69¢ $19 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 68¢ $19 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 23¢ $22 1h
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 82¢ $39 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 82¢ $39 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 82¢ $39 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 22¢ $9 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 22¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $53 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.60 · official $39.30 · 139 history records