trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 B | Jun 07 | $24 | +$13 | +54% |
| Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 02 | $47 | −$22 | -47% |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 18 | $1,635 | +$93 | +6% |
| Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the | Apr 27 | $1 | +$2 | +275% |
| Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2 | Apr 26 | $130 | +$7 | +5% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou | Apr 26 | $65 | +$3 | +4% |
| Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 | Apr 26 | $6 | +$1 | +17% |
| Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Apr 01 | $2 | +$1 | +50% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2 | Mar 27 | $89 | +$9 | +10% |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro | Mar 24 | $261 | +$12 | +4% |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r | Mar 23 | $742 | +$72 | +10% |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e | Mar 23 | $309 | +$63 | +20% |
| Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | Mar 19 | $633 | +$88 | +14% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or higher on February 18? | Mar 18 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Television" or "TV" during the Black History Month rec | Mar 18 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Gas" or "Gasoline" during the Black History Month rece | Mar 18 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the | Mar 10 | $54 | +$6 | +11% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti | Mar 09 | $325 | −$41 | -13% |
| Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? | Feb 23 | $20 | −$2 | -10% |
| Will Trump say "Black American" 5+ times during the Black History Mont | Feb 19 | $1 | +$1 | +64% |
| Will Trump say "Jesse" or "Jackson" during the Black History Month rec | Feb 19 | $6 | +$1 | +18% |
| Will Trump say "Border" during the Black History Month reception? | Feb 19 | $11 | +$4 | +41% |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil | Feb 16 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jan 23 | $438 | +$82 | +19% |
| Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Jan 18 | $28 | +$6 | +20% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +54.0% | +39.3% | 100% | 100% | +39.3% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 67% | 33% | -5.1% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +7.6% | -2.7% | 75% | 38% | -2.3% |
| all | 25 | +11.0% | +0.4% | 76% | 48% | -2.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.4% | 48% | -2.6% |
| 10% | -9.2% | 20% | -11.9% |
| 15% | -18.0% | 20% | -20.4% |
| 20% | -26.0% | 12% | -28.2% |