Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9378…5226 world 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$9
other 25% +$29
politics 5% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 18 -0.9% -10.3% 44% 0% -11.0%
all 36 +7.1% -3.1% 44% 3% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 3% -7.8%
10% -12.4% 3% -16.6%
15% -20.8% 3% -24.7%
20% -28.6% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage269d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $50 −$3 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $9 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $49 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $27 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $48 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $30 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $94 −$5 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $52 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $108 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 22 $26 −$3 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $51 −$4 -8%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Jan 31 $15 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $12 +$33 +270%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 07 $15 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 28 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $50 22m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $50 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $17 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $30 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $50 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $51 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $31 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $37 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records