Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x9379…1173 politics 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$803 (+0%) realized +$794 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 113L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1,284per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$24
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$495
politics 37% −$75
sports 14% +$474
culture 4% −$105
economics 1% $0
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% +$9
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 89 +0.4% -9.2% 9% 4% -9.6%
all 141 +6.0% -4.1% 20% 14% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 14% -9.1%
10% -13.3% 13% -17.8%
15% -21.7% 11% -25.8%
20% -29.3% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,518) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$10 · ×6.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized+$794
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,284
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $355 $364 +$9 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $494 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,308 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $651 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $655 +$1 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,637 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,869 −$5 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $485 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,074 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $2,350 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,197 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $847 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $752 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $59 +$27 +46%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,608 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,120 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $820 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $52 +$31 +60%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,736 −$3 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? May 19 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $4,111 −$5 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,323 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $2,555 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1,402 −$3 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,384 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3,862 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $411 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $412 2h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $493 3h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $494 5h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 4d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $650 4d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $651 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $251 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $251 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $427 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $427 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $483 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $485 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $485 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $486 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $486 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $485 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $485 8d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $356 10d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $841 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $842 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $837 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $839 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $744 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $745 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $745 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $746 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $845 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.02 · official $364.02 (match) · 467 history records