Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x937b…bfab weather 430 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14,771 (+10%) realized +$14,771 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate99%419W / 5L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day147.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$851
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +72.0% +55.6% 99% 15% -7.6%
≤30d 424 +21.4% +9.8% 99% 6% -10.5%
≤90d 424 +21.4% +9.8% 99% 6% -10.5%
all 424 +21.4% +9.8% 99% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 6% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -0.7% 4% -19.1%
15% -10.3% 3% -26.9%
20% -19.1% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1,106 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$14,771
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses419 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)424 / 430
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$352
Trades / day147.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 1 Jun 18 $708 −$708 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1,291 +$205 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $385 +$16 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $247 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $513 +$46 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $706 +$34 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $154 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,329 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $663 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $133 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $469 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $361 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $247 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $205 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $151 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $277 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $238 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 16 $637 +$14 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? Jun 16 $162 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 16 $188 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $244 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $68 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 16 $164 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $415 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 16 $349 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 14? Jun 16 $121 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? Jun 16 $538 +$66 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $75 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 16 $882 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 16 $348 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $522 +$41 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 16 $256 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $248 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $249 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $247 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $197 +$10 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1,491 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $1,291 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $328 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $396 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $42 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $52 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.63 · official $15.02 · 3500 history records