Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x937f…a8e9 world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate40%30W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$8
politics 19% +$8
other 17% $0
sports 13% −$15
economics 5% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 60% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 24 +8.8% -1.6% 54% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 66 +3.0% -6.8% 38% 5% -9.2%
all 75 +6.4% -3.7% 40% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 9% -9.6%
10% -12.9% 7% -18.2%
15% -21.4% 5% -26.1%
20% -29.1% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses30 / 45
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)75 / 81
History coverage531d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 46¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $91 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $63 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $43 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $43 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $141 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $89 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $77 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $9 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $42 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $29 +$5 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $22 −$5 -23%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $48 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $4 −$1 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $41 +$5 +11%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 07 $1 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 07 $1 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $215 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $3 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $78 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $43 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $3 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $16 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $22 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 27¢ $15 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $4 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $13 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $44 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $25 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $49 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $24 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $37 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.06 · official $46.18 (match) · 346 history records