Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x937f…8362 other 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$160 (-4%) realized −$154 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate30%68W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$78
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$102
crypto 26% −$107
world 18% −$24
tech 10% +$8
weather 3% −$4
politics 3% −$9
sports 2% +$2
finance 2% −$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -8.0% -16.8% 17% 10% -17.2%
≤30d 58 -4.6% -13.7% 21% 14% -12.0%
≤90d 142 -15.7% -23.8% 27% 13% -14.4%
all 230 -11.5% -19.9% 30% 13% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 13% -14.9%
10% -27.6% 9% -23.1%
15% -34.6% 7% -30.5%
20% -41.0% 5% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$154
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses68 / 162
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)230 / 234
History coverage143d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? No 10¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 46¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 26 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 26 $30 −$5 -18%
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 26 $10 −$1 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 26 $10 +$18 +185%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 26 $20 −$4 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $20 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -13%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 −$6 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $130 −$24 -18%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 25 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 25 $30 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 25 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 25 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $20 −$3 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $40 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $19 −$8 -40%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $20 −$7 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -30%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 20 $20 $0 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 19 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.00 in May? Jun 18 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May? Jun 18 $43 −$9 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL No 79¢ $9 30m
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL No 56¢ $10 35m
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 28¢ $9 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $28 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 65¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL No 8¢ $5 2h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 3h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 3h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 3h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 82¢ $10 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 71¢ $10 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 5h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 45¢ $9 6h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 53¢ $10 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? SELL No 4¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 73¢ $13 6h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL No 70¢ $8 6h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 43¢ $8 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL No 17¢ $6 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 25¢ $10 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $10 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $8 9h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY No 30¢ $10 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL No 56¢ $9 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY No 10¢ $10 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 52¢ $10 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 62¢ $10 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.19 · official $22.91 (match) · 1463 history records