Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x937f…104a sports 316 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$910 (-3%) realized −$538 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate34%104W / 204L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day59.7pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$952
14 days−$492
30 days−$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$283
other 8% −$153
world 7% −$86
tech 6% −$112
crypto 4% +$91
politics 1% −$57
finance 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 22% -14.7%
≤30d 183 -4.7% -13.8% 40% 16% -11.6%
≤90d 308 -2.9% -12.2% 34% 10% -11.1%
all 308 -2.9% -12.2% 34% 10% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 10% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 4% -19.6%
15% -28.3% 2% -27.4%
20% -35.3% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized−$538
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses104 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions8
Markets (closed)308 / 316
History coverage35d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day59.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No 96¢ 95¢ $202 $200 −$2 (-1%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? No 94¢ 88¢ $109 $102 −$7 (-6%)
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? No 83¢ 80¢ $84 $82 −$3 (-3%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 55¢ 27¢ $134 $66 −$68 (-51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $52 $55 +$2 (+5%)
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? No 92¢ 84¢ $44 $41 −$4 (-8%)
Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-67%)
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $124 +$5 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$7 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market clos Jun 13 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $28 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$2 +6%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 12 $37 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $140 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $97 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $111 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $183 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $105 +$27 +26%
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 12 $166 +$4 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,055 −$156 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $1,053 −$43 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $2,828 −$149 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$3 +13%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $1,935 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +6%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $1,398 +$103 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -25%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $222 −$155 -70%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $304 −$168 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$4 +16%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $593 +$86 +15%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 10 $57 +$2 +3%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $1,680 −$190 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $28 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $124 19m
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of SELL Yes 25¢ $62 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market clos BUY No 96¢ $64 3h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market clos BUY No 96¢ $96 3h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market clos BUY No 96¢ $42 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 8h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 94¢ $193 20h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 23h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 83¢ $145 23h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market clos SELL No 77¢ $31 25h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 94¢ $193 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $28 29h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 83¢ $50 30h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 83¢ $22 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 31h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 83¢ $5 31h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 83¢ $2 31h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market clos BUY No 72¢ $29 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $6 2d
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 49¢ $44 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $24 2d
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? SELL No 15¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.04 · official $548.94 (match) · 3500 history records