Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x9380…cf36 world 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$337 (+6%) realized +$321 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate76%54W / 17L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$8
14 days−$0
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$96
politics 32% +$76
other 32% +$186
crypto 0% −$19
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.1% -36.8% 33% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 62% 38% -4.6%
≤90d 40 +8.6% -1.8% 80% 40% -0.3%
all 71 +3.2% -6.6% 76% 31% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 31% -3.5%
10% -15.5% 17% -12.7%
15% -23.7% 14% -21.1%
20% -31.2% 6% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.39 per $1 lost it wins $5.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$932
Realized+$321
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses54 / 17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)71 / 77
History coverage149d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $636 $663 +$27 (+4%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 94¢ 97¢ $110 $113 +$3 (+3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? No 78¢ 92¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+18%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $15 −$7 -44%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $15 −$7 -49%
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? Jun 07 $57 +$8 +14%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Jun 03 $30 +$12 +41%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $60 +$11 +18%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $25 +$4 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? May 28 $20 −$2 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election? May 18 $622 +$13 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $75 +$5 +6%
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? May 09 $20 +$3 +13%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? May 08 $20 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 07 $60 +$13 +22%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $20 +$1 +7%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 29 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 29 $5 −$1 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Apr 29 $20 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 19 $90 +$67 +74%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 16 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 09 $20 +$1 +3%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $20 +$5 +26%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 01 $70 +$9 +14%
Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $21 +$9 +43%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $30 +$36 +120%
Will Edmundo González Urrutia visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $70 +$15 +21%
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $182 +$11 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $40 +$7 +18%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $200 +$2 +1%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? Mar 19 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Mar 16 $392 +$22 +6%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $70 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $21 +$8 +41%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$10 +49%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$11 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 29 Feb 26 $8 −$5 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 29 Feb 26 $15 −$13 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $206 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 11d
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $17 14d
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $16 15d
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes $9 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $20 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $20 20d
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? SELL No 52¢ $18 21d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $54 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $16 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 23d
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? BUY No 79¢ $1 24d
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? BUY No 79¢ $19 24d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $70 24d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 24d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $70 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $931.57 · official $931.57 (match) · 344 history records