Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9384…d1b1 crypto 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$256 (-6%) realized −$174 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%52W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days+$201
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$636
tech 31% +$422
crypto 11% −$45
finance 11% −$57
other 2% −$3
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 20% -10.7%
≤30d 8 +15.4% +4.4% 62% 50% +6.8%
≤90d 100 -7.3% -16.2% 52% 43% -14.6%
all 100 -7.3% -16.2% 52% 43% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 43% -14.6%
10% -24.2% 30% -22.8%
15% -31.5% 18% -30.2%
20% -38.2% 9% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses52 / 48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage67d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $119 $50 −$69 (-58%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $28 $15 −$13 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 24 $10 $0 -1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 24 $31 +$2 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 24 $187 −$9 -5%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 24 $291 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $533 +$201 +38%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $16 +$3 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 23 $268 −$24 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $595 −$545 -92%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $419 +$204 +49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 18 $170 −$29 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 09 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 07 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 07 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 07 $21 −$5 -23%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $23 −$9 -38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 07 $3 +$1 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 03 $118 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 29 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 29 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$2 +36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 29 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 28 $4 +$1 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 28 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 28 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $222 +$30 +14%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Apr 26 $5 +$2 +37%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Apr 26 $13 +$3 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $64 +$10 +15%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 26 $72 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 23 $19 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 23 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 23 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 23 $30 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 23 $23 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 23 $27 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $33 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $45 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $179 1h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 30¢ $286 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 8d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 18¢ $10 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $25 8d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 8d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $86 9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $734 9d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 32d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $72 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $36 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $172 37d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $172 37d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $190 37d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $189 37d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $141 37d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 47¢ $141 37d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $56 42d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $56 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 46d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $268 46d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $19 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.40 · official $65.40 (match) · 344 history records