Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9386…8a37 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$350 (-12%) realized −$348 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%44W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% $0
crypto 32% −$31
other 12% −$320
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 42 -2.2% -11.5% 98% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 44 -2.1% -11.4% 98% 0% -12.7%
all 47 -4.1% -13.2% 94% 0% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -20.8%
10% -21.5% 0% -28.4%
15% -29.1% 0% -35.3%
20% -36.0% 0% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$175 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$348
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses44 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage136d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? No 100¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 25-31? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5AM ET May 25 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 2 G Mar 13 $1 $0 +1%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 12? Mar 12 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebane Feb 06 $1,601 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will Solana dip to $30 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 19d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.40 · official $42.40 (match) · 96 history records