Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x938c…c214 other 9 markets active 5h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-47%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$8
other 48% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-68.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -65.1% -68.4% 25% 25% -80.4%
≤30d 4 -65.1% -68.4% 25% 25% -80.4%
≤90d 4 -65.1% -68.4% 25% 25% -80.4%
all 4 -65.1% -68.4% 25% 25% -80.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.4% 25% -80.4%
10% -71.4% 25% -82.3%
15% -74.2% 25% -84.0%
20% -76.7% 0% -85.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.72 · official $9.72 (match) · 10 history records