Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x938d…8674 weather 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,377 (+39%) realized +$13,393 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%108W / 149L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$6,046
other 0% −$43
sports 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +16.3% +5.2% 28% 28% +22.3%
≤30d 67 +13.4% +2.6% 36% 34% +20.6%
≤90d 243 +13.4% +2.6% 41% 34% +4.9%
all 257 +23.9% +12.1% 42% 35% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.1% 35% +6.2%
10% ← realistic here +1.4% 28% -4.0%
15% -8.4% 23% -13.2%
20% -17.4% 19% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$39 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$13,393
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses108 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)257 / 262
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$133
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Yes 36¢ 45¢ $71 $90 +$19 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $71 $63 −$8 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $78 $62 −$15 (-20%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 33¢ 32¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 −$6 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Jun 20 $224 +$255 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? Jun 20 $55 −$16 -29%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $109 −$80 -74%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $150 −$38 -25%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 19? Jun 18 $0 $0 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $47 +$33 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 +$65 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$30 +560%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $130 +$269 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $76 −$53 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $312 +$44 +14%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $14 −$5 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $76 −$52 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $32 +$105 +330%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 −$17 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $256 +$34 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $35 −$30 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $130 +$261 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $1,238 +$129 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $129 −$102 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $45 −$41 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $737 +$154 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 −$48 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $302 +$50 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 6? Jun 05 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $508 +$193 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $41 +$14 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $22 −$19 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $45 −$42 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $33 +$32 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $83 −$30 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $150 +$569 +379%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $104 −$80 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 1? Jun 01 $20 −$8 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $62 −$52 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 30? May 31 $1,212 +$201 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 30? May 31 $0 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 30? May 30 $7 −$6 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 30? May 30 $9 −$4 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $484 +$176 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 14m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $73 14m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 41¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 16¢ $81 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.27 · official $243.27 (match) · 3500 history records