Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9390…6a88 crypto 311 markets active 0h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,599 (-8%) realized −$7,956 · open −$643
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%133W / 175L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$715
7 days−$715
14 days−$715
30 days−$1,184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$9,811
sports 3% −$407
other 1% −$322
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -54.1% -58.5% 22% 22% -22.3%
≤30d 16 -41.7% -47.2% 31% 31% -26.4%
≤90d 33 -27.3% -34.2% 36% 36% -15.4%
all 308 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 43% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 43% -18.2%
10% -16.6% 43% -26.0%
15% -24.7% 42% -33.2%
20% -32.0% 42% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$363 vs −$332 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$7,956
Unrealized−$643
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses133 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)308 / 311
History coverage173d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Down 30¢ 16¢ $267 $148 −$118 (-44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Down 29¢ 16¢ $236 $132 −$104 (-44%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 30¢ 0¢ $422 $1 −$421 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $334 −$334 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $433 −$431 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $613 −$612 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $311 +$388 +125%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $209 −$200 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $1,952 +$1,718 +88%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Jun 29 $1,033 −$995 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11PM ET May 31 $9 +$7 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $310 +$256 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $301 −$290 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10PM ET May 31 $127 −$120 -94%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 9AM ET May 31 $122 +$84 +68%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 6AM ET May 30 $211 −$205 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 30 $207 +$180 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 30 $312 +$364 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 30 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 30 $208 +$292 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 30 $309 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 30 $259 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $208 +$280 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 04 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 04 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 04 $94 +$59 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 04 $101 +$94 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 04 $80 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 04 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 04 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 04 $104 +$139 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 04 $100 −$97 -97%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 04 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 24 $243 +$309 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 24 $100 +$224 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 24 $300 −$295 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 24 $300 −$296 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 24 $330 −$325 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 24 $386 −$380 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 24 $300 −$296 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 24 $561 +$525 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 24 $265 −$261 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 24 $96 +$169 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 24 $69 +$73 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 24 $500 +$364 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 24 $289 −$286 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 24 $545 −$536 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 24 $150 −$148 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 24 $298 −$294 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $18 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $247 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $62 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $62 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $94 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.20 · official $281.20 (match) · 833 history records