Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
93 0x9390…6303 crypto 936 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,073 (-7%) realized −$1,071 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%474W / 458L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$277
14 days+$306
30 days+$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$1,702
other 17% −$29
sports 15% +$539
weather 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.0% -9.5% 52% 52% +7.6%
≤30d 37 +16.0% +4.9% 49% 49% +7.9%
≤90d 835 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 44% -22.6%
all 932 -0.1% -9.6% 51% 43% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 43% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 37% -26.1%
15% -26.2% 30% -33.2%
20% -33.4% 24% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$1,071
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses474 / 458
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)932 / 936
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 932 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $88 $85 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $89 −$89 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $89 +$94 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $89 +$87 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $90 −$88 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $23 +$14 +62%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $61 +$41 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $81 +$79 +97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$68 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $49 +$49 +101%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $99 +$105 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $57 +$45 +79%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $51 +$36 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $99 +$108 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $119 +$81 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$13 -12%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $145 +$58 +40%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$76 +737%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $63 +$26 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $82 −$80 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 +$45 +443%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $157 +$47 +30%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -93%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 08 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 08 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 08 $109 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 08 $34 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 07 $87 −$31 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 07 $38 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 07 $51 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 07 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 07 $32 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 07 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 07 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 07 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 07 $6 +$2 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $89 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $90 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $89 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $89 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $89 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $90 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $89 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $89 34h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $23 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $61 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $81 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $49 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $42 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $99 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $57 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $99 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 6d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 21¢ $85 6d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 22¢ $102 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $119 6d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.23 · official $350.23 (match) · 3500 history records