Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x9394…37da other 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 675d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$330 (+1%) realized −$696 · open +$1,026
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%145W / 167L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3,986now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$406
14 days+$470
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$832
economics 23% −$922
politics 20% +$15
world 17% +$2,092
tech 3% +$17
sports 3% +$130
crypto 3% −$202
finance 1% +$7
weather 0% +$9
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +50.2% +35.9% 100% 67% +22.7%
≤30d 13 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 23% -0.5%
≤90d 26 +43.1% +29.5% 54% 27% +49.0%
all 312 -12.7% -21.0% 46% 37% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 37% -12.8%
10% -28.6% 28% -21.1%
15% -35.5% 22% -28.7%
20% -41.8% 17% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$37 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

675d coverage
Net worth$3,986
Realized−$696
Unrealized+$1,026
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses145 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)312 / 327
History coverage675d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? No 45¢ 72¢ $1,989 $3,169 +$1,179 (+59%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $98 $147 +$50 (+51%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 82¢ 82¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-75%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? No 81¢ 0¢ $182 $0 −$182 (-100%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $494 +$43 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $596 +$318 +53%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $244 +$58 +24%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $90 +$3 +3%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $401 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $50 −$28 -57%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $495 −$108 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 25 $30 +$3 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $150 −$10 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $100 −$17 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an May 22 $51 +$7 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $120 −$90 -75%
Spread: Burnley FC (-1.5) May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 19 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 18 $153 −$37 -24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $31 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $75 +$762 +1016%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $186 +$1,261 +678%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Mar 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Mar 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) Mar 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 16 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Mar 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Mar 16 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Mar 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Mar 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025? Mar 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September? Mar 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Mar 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025? Mar 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Will VVD win fewer than 14 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in September? Mar 16 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26? Mar 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Mar 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Polish snap election called in 2025? Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27? Mar 16 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Mar 16 $334 −$259 -78%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25? Mar 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 82¢ $50 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 86¢ $75 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 52¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $400 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $252 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $300 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 96¢ $302 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 77¢ $244 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $243 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 44¢ $200 9d
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 96¢ $93 9d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $107 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $130 19d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 73¢ $54 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 44¢ $76 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 7¢ $27 23d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $100 25d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 28¢ $74 25d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $60 26d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% a BUY Yes 6¢ $0 26d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% a BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik BUY Jakub Mensik 91¢ $30 27d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 37¢ $51 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $50 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $140 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $83 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,985.77 · official $4,033.36 · 936 history records