Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
93 0x9396…ca77 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$608 (+11%) realized +$609 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,116per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$2,073
world 27% −$1,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.3% +7.9% 67% 67% +3.3%
≤30d 3 +19.3% +7.9% 67% 67% +3.3%
≤90d 3 +19.3% +7.9% 67% 67% +3.3%
all 3 +19.3% +7.9% 67% 67% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 67% +3.3%
10% -2.4% 67% -6.5%
15% -11.8% 67% -15.6%
20% -20.5% 67% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,037 vs −$1,500 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,499
Realized+$609
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,116
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 48¢ $750 $758 +$8 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $750 $742 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,522 +$1,419 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,520 −$1,500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $762 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $762 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1,012 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,520 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,522 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,499.48 · official $1,499.48 (match) · 7 history records