Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
93 0x939f…2865 crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,814 (-16%) realized −$2,814 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 53L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$587
7 days−$1,050
14 days−$1,050
30 days−$1,050
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$562
other 20% −$2,536
politics 17% −$304
sports 9% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -21.9% -29.4% 44% 38% -19.3%
≤30d 64 -21.9% -29.4% 44% 38% -19.3%
≤90d 64 -21.9% -29.4% 44% 38% -19.3%
all 88 -23.5% -30.8% 40% 34% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 34% -28.5%
10% -37.4% 33% -35.4%
15% -43.5% 25% -41.6%
20% -49.0% 22% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$143 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,814
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage380d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $208 −$51 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $214 −$210 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $227 −$221 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $207 +$165 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $304 −$37 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $304 +$75 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $357 +$24 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$90 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$57 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$148 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$83 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$66 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$68 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $154 +$84 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$106 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $177 +$34 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $111 −$105 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$86 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$156 +100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$69 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$65 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $178 +$59 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $232 +$162 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$174 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $311 −$300 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 0m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $97 4m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $53 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $218 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $22 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $371 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $111 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $219 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $47 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 234 history records