Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:20:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x93a0…4147 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$7 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.1% -5.8% 82% 6% -6.2%
≤30d 17 +4.1% -5.8% 82% 6% -6.2%
≤90d 17 +4.1% -5.8% 82% 6% -6.2%
all 17 +4.1% -5.8% 82% 6% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 6% -6.2%
10% -14.8% 0% -15.2%
15% -23.1% 0% -23.4%
20% -30.6% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×82.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×385.37 per $1 lost it wins $385.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.82 · official $79.82 (match) · 34 history records