Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x93a0…6623 sports 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,712 (+5%) realized +$7,360 · open −$648
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%93W / 71L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$788per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1,690est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,768now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,492
7 days+$9,130
14 days+$1,353
30 days+$5,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$5,615
other 4% −$173
politics 1% −$1,002
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +13.8% +2.9% 66% 61% +10.8%
≤30d 164 +1.3% -8.4% 57% 53% -4.8%
≤90d 164 +1.3% -8.4% 57% 53% -4.8%
all 164 +1.3% -8.4% 57% 53% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 53% -4.8%
10% -17.1% 49% -13.9%
15% -25.1% 46% -22.2%
20% -32.5% 39% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,011) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$403 vs −$456 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$2,768
Realized+$7,360
Unrealized−$648
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses93 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,690
Open positions5
Markets (closed)164 / 169
History coverage592d
Avg bet$788
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Under 64¢ 90¢ $800 $1,119 +$319 (+40%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Under 66¢ 66¢ $600 $600 +$0 (+0%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 50¢ 44¢ $496 $442 −$55 (-11%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Under 64¢ 42¢ $512 $336 −$176 (-34%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 56¢ 15¢ $1,008 $272 −$736 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $806 +$694 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $1,333 −$1,148 -86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $376 +$224 +60%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $370 +$230 +62%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $1,147 +$683 +60%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $1,452 +$548 +38%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $1,530 +$487 +32%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $259 −$255 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $985 +$815 +83%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $369 +$231 +63%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $2,429 −$935 -38%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $1,612 +$1,388 +86%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $1,523 +$591 +39%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $1,155 −$59 -5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $2,025 −$414 -20%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $1,612 −$105 -6%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $941 +$559 +60%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $911 +$504 +55%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1,011 +$588 +58%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $303 +$173 +57%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $303 +$145 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $809 −$800 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $881 +$619 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $926 +$574 +62%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $303 +$158 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $322 +$278 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $1,057 +$743 +70%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $1,957 +$489 +25%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $310 −$306 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $510 −$504 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $546 +$33 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $186 −$183 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $541 +$259 +48%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $725 +$575 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $936 +$714 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1,084 +$566 +52%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $364 +$236 +65%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $567 +$433 +76%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $507 −$501 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $577 +$422 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $388 −$384 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$37 -79%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$189 +474%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,362 +$137 +3%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $309 −$146 -47%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $127 +$73 +57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $145 −$144 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 66¢ $606 45m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 64¢ $809 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 10¢ $0 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 10¢ $4 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 10¢ $1 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 10¢ $5 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 10¢ $3 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 10¢ $1 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 10¢ $10 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 10¢ $1 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 11¢ $26 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 10¢ $54 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 10¢ $1 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 11¢ $6 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 11¢ $1 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 11¢ $1 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 11¢ $1 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 11¢ $3 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 11¢ $1 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 11¢ $10 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 11¢ $43 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 56¢ $1,021 4h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $1,333 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $806 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $208 20h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 63¢ $125 21h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 62¢ $184 21h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $13 22h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $4 22h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $19 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,768.11 · official $2,768.11 (match) · 882 history records