Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93a1…9d10 crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$245 (-2%) realized −$239 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%58W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$839
14 days−$425
30 days−$425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$173
world 4% −$258
sports 1% −$40
other 1% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +1.2% -8.4% 49% 46% -44.3%
≤30d 116 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 47% -13.5%
≤90d 116 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 47% -13.5%
all 116 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 47% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 47% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 43% -21.7%
15% -31.0% 39% -29.3%
20% -37.7% 30% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$67 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized−$239
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses58 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)116 / 120
History coverage14d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$16 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $41 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $41 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$33 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $262 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $160 +$178 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $127 +$29 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$16 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $57 −$51 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $66 +$2 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$42 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$38 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$3 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 −$146 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $198 −$190 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$25 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$15 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$40 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.08 · official $224.08 (match) · 397 history records