Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93a2…5181 sports 741 markets active 0h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,573 (-11%) realized −$10,589 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%318W / 412L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$9,000
crypto 10% −$1,184
other 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +41.9% +28.4% 50% 50% -13.4%
≤30d 6 +41.9% +28.4% 50% 50% -13.4%
≤90d 17 +43.0% +29.4% 59% 53% -21.8%
all 730 -13.3% -21.6% 44% 39% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 39% -19.1%
10% -29.1% 34% -26.9%
15% -35.9% 30% -33.9%
20% -42.2% 29% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$127 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$2,267
Realized−$10,589
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses318 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions11
Markets (closed)730 / 741
History coverage201d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 730 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Miami Marlins 29¢ 86¢ $264 $781 +$517 (+196%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Colorado Rockies 55¢ 100¢ $252 $456 +$204 (+81%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Seattle Mariners 20¢ 100¢ $64 $322 +$257 (+400%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) San Diego Padres 46¢ 48¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+5%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Over 37¢ 18¢ $379 $189 −$189 (-50%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 55¢ 56¢ $185 $186 +$2 (+1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 36¢ 28¢ $123 $94 −$29 (-24%)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Over 48¢ 6¢ $215 $27 −$188 (-87%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $286 $0 −$285 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 41¢ 0¢ $207 $0 −$206 (-100%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers 22¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $125 +$215 +172%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $125 +$215 +172%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $238 −$238 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 28 $126 +$260 +206%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 19 $500 +$6 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Apr 19 $300 +$370 +124%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Apr 19 $285 +$594 +208%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Apr 18 $260 −$260 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Apr 18 $828 −$828 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Apr 18 $1,480 −$1,480 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Apr 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Apr 18 $100 +$105 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Apr 18 $350 +$530 +152%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Apr 16 $150 +$209 +140%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Apr 16 $150 +$226 +151%
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 153.5 Mar 23 $19 +$24 +128%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Mar 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5 Mar 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5 Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 161.5 Mar 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 137.5 Mar 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Seattle Redhawks vs. Auburn Tigers: O/U 146.5 Mar 23 $56 −$56 -100%
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane: O/U 161.5 Mar 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators: O/U 144.5 Mar 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Mar 23 $221 −$221 -100%
Nets vs. Kings: O/U 219.5 Mar 23 $3 +$5 +156%
Nets vs. Kings: O/U 218.5 Mar 23 $13 +$16 +125%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 144.5 Mar 23 $55 +$70 +126%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators: O/U 145.5 Mar 23 $62 +$96 +155%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5 Mar 23 $64 −$64 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 146.5 Mar 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5 Mar 23 $67 −$67 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 Mar 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Mar 23 $337 +$126 +37%
Spread: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-2.5) Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $460 −$460 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 23 $466 −$466 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5 Mar 23 $13 +$20 +150%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5 Mar 23 $17 +$23 +133%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5 Mar 23 $55 +$72 +132%
Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-1.5) Mar 23 $109 +$26 +23%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 147.5 Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5 Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5 Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5 Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5 Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5 Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $187 13m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $428 14m
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 37¢ $386 32m
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $218 50m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 56¢ $289 52m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 29¢ $270 54m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 22¢ $80 55m
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 20¢ $66 58m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 36¢ $125 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $203 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 36¢ $125 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 36¢ $125 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 44¢ $192 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 55¢ $256 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 41¢ $210 1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 32¢ $126 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $238 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 69d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 25¢ $135 70d
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 25¢ $300 70d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 42¢ $150 70d
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 38¢ $150 70d
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 44¢ $300 70d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 41¢ $50 70d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1,480 71d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 47¢ $828 71d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 39¢ $200 71d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 39¢ $150 71d
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 48¢ $100 72d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $200 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,267.16 · official $2,248.99 (match) · 2916 history records