Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93a4…6bdb crypto 960 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,530 (-12%) realized −$2,516 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%359W / 592L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$250
14 days+$301
30 days+$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$2,550
crypto 44% −$300
other 2% +$318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -71.4% -74.2% 12% 12% -48.4%
≤30d 75 +4.5% -5.5% 31% 29% -2.0%
≤90d 160 -11.5% -19.9% 29% 28% -27.2%
all 951 -16.2% -24.2% 38% 37% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 37% -20.9%
10% -31.4% 37% -28.5%
15% -38.1% 36% -35.4%
20% -44.1% 32% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$2,516
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses359 / 592
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions5
Markets (closed)951 / 960
History coverage249d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 951 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ 100¢ $35 $55 +$20 (+58%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 41¢ 40¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Virtus.pro 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Virtus.pro 42¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Virtus.pro 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$77 -76%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $208 −$205 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $150 +$158 +105%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $186 −$182 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $145 +$187 +128%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $132 −$130 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $79 +$351 +442%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $69 −$67 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$18 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 +$39 +129%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $65 +$74 +114%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $29 +$319 +1116%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$170 +334%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $13 +$33 +249%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 +$109 +628%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$63 +413%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $28 +$106 +383%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $18 −$18 -97%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $20 −$19 -97%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $19 −$19 -98%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $54 −$53 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO1) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 08 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $52 −$25 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 33¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 42¢ $15 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $35 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $18 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 6¢ $5 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 13¢ $24 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $100 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $208 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $308 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 46¢ $98 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 48¢ $150 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 17¢ $84 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $332 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 43¢ $145 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 50¢ $102 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 35¢ $51 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $132 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $79 7d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $15 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $101 7d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $102 7d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 7d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $53 7d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 33¢ $13 7d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 33¢ $53 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.64 · official $72.64 (match) · 2600 history records