Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:48:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93a4…1aca crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$25 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%24W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day90.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 47% -11.9%
≤30d 36 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 47% -11.9%
≤90d 36 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 47% -11.9%
all 36 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 47% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 47% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 17% -20.3%
15% -34.6% 8% -28.0%
20% -41.0% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses24 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day90.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 0¢ 76¢ $0 $13 +$13 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $66 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.89 · official $13.40 (match) · 109 history records