Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
93 0x93a8…4287 sports 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,378 (+27%) realized +$2,450 · open −$72
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%49W / 37L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days+$396
14 days+$846
30 days+$2,191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$1,958
other 8% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.8% -13.8% 52% 50% -0.1%
≤30d 86 +14.5% +3.6% 57% 56% +14.5%
≤90d 86 +14.5% +3.6% 57% 56% +14.5%
all 86 +14.5% +3.6% 57% 56% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 56% +14.5%
10% -6.4% 56% +3.5%
15% -15.4% 56% -6.5%
20% -23.7% 52% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$68 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized+$2,450
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses49 / 37
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions6
Markets (closed)86 / 92
History coverage22d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 50¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+5%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 29¢ 32¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 38¢ $75 $3 −$72 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $179 −$9 -5%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $82 +$4 +5%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $92 +$49 +53%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $102 +$79 +78%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $92 +$91 +99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $82 −$80 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $102 +$62 +60%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 +$53 +52%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 −$4 -7%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $62 −$60 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $41 +$25 +60%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $41 +$28 +69%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $41 +$27 +66%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 +$73 +72%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $41 +$28 +69%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $82 +$52 +64%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $103 +$147 +143%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 22 $82 −$41 -50%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 22 $72 −$70 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 22 $103 +$125 +121%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$64 +63%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $284 +$171 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $219 +$97 +44%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $51 +$68 +132%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $153 +$86 +56%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $49 −$48 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $205 −$150 -73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $82 −$6 -8%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $102 +$70 +69%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $57 −$55 -97%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 +$60 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $72 +$49 +69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $82 +$49 +60%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $173 +$78 +45%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$26 +51%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$48 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $72 32m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $102 32m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 38¢ $77 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $102 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 51¢ $171 14h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $73 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 56¢ $86 16h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $72 21h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $31 22h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $77 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $82 24h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 29¢ $26 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $92 26h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $92 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $102 26h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $92 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $82 26h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 61¢ $102 43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 97¢ $155 47h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $51 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 43¢ $48 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $51 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $102 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves $21 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 62¢ $102 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 95¢ $134 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $41 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 61¢ $41 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $41 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 58¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.93 · official $387.94 (match) · 193 history records