Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93a9…5aa1 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$939 (-20%) realized −$890 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$889
crypto 14% −$120
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 35 -41.9% -47.5% 37% 26% -29.8%
all 35 -41.9% -47.5% 37% 26% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.5% 26% -29.8%
10% -52.5% 11% -36.6%
15% -57.1% 9% -42.7%
20% -61.3% 6% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$72 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$890
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage42d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 22¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 13 $377 −$369 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $320 +$58 +18%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner May 13 $327 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 13 $319 +$7 +2%
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs SAW - Map 2 Winner May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 13 $26 −$24 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 13 $26 −$25 -94%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic - Map 1 Winner May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 10 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 10 $26 +$122 +462%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 10 $26 +$10 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $143 −$143 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $102 +$103 +102%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 10 $498 −$492 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner May 10 $62 −$60 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 09 $101 +$10 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 09 $101 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - CCT May 09 $388 +$48 +12%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Master May 09 $96 −$94 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $589 +$92 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $446 +$153 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 22¢ $51 52m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 42¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 29¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 5¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner BUY Sinners 29¢ $377 38d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $378 38d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 84¢ $320 38d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 48¢ $317 38d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 48¢ $3 38d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 24¢ $327 38d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 2¢ $9 38d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 85¢ $316 38d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 85¢ $1 38d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 42¢ $319 38d
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs SAW - Map 2 Winner BUY SAW 2¢ $1 38d
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs SAW - Map 2 Winner BUY SAW 2¢ $1 38d
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs SAW - Map 2 Winner BUY SAW 5¢ $2 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 38d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Monte 2¢ $4 38d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Monte 2¢ $1 38d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Monte 2¢ $1 38d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Monte 2¢ $0 38d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Monte 2¢ $4 38d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Monte 2¢ $0 38d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Monte 8¢ $20 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.56 · official $20.56 (match) · 79 history records