Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93a9…0b88 world 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$29,974 (+19%) realized +$14,353 · open +$20,607
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate66%50W / 26L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,324per market
Trades / day128.7pace
Fees−$279est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$67,352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,901
7 days+$7,158
14 days+$14,321
30 days+$14,353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$23,062
politics 22% +$2,887
sports 8% −$318
other 5% +$7,157
crypto 4% +$2,864
tech 1% −$450
finance 1% −$652
culture 0% +$405
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -3.0% -12.3% 68% 34% -0.6%
≤30d 76 +32.0% +19.4% 66% 42% +2.4%
≤90d 76 +32.0% +19.4% 66% 42% +2.4%
all 76 +32.0% +19.4% 66% 42% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.4% 42% +2.4%
10% +8.0% 26% -7.4%
15% ← realistic here -2.4% 22% -16.3%
20% -12.0% 16% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +66% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$427 vs −$269 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$67,352
Realized+$14,353
Unrealized+$20,607
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses50 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$279
Open positions58
Markets (closed)76 / 117
History coverage15d
Avg bet$1,324
Trades / day128.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 51¢ 82¢ $20,391 $32,695 +$12,303 (+60%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 42¢ $7,024 $6,477 −$546 (-8%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $3,612 $3,620 +$8 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $1,696 $2,957 +$1,261 (+74%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $2,390 $2,655 +$265 (+11%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $1,603 $2,196 +$593 (+37%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 28¢ 76¢ $746 $2,046 +$1,300 (+174%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 82¢ $0 $1,881 +$1,881 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $1,241 $1,450 +$209 (+17%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes $1,029 $991 −$38 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 65¢ 68¢ $943 $990 +$47 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ $0 $975 +$975 (+0%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 51¢ 57¢ $773 $867 +$94 (+12%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 82¢ $0 $841 +$841 (+0%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $712 $691 −$21 (-3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ $0 $600 +$600 (+0%)
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $413 $414 +$1 (+0%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ $0 $398 +$398 (+0%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $368 $359 −$9 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $212 $359 +$147 (+69%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $265 $347 +$82 (+31%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 86¢ 91¢ $324 $343 +$19 (+6%)
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? Yes 26¢ $0 $286 +$286 (+0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes $226 $248 +$22 (+10%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 57¢ 56¢ $215 $213 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9,356 +$146 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $202 +$5 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $5,553 +$3,777 +68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $219 +$22 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $5,543 −$46 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3,083 +$1,271 +41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $1,200 −$541 -45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $508 +$25 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $4,193 +$711 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,013 +$106 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,153 +$75 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $329 +$3 +1%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 14 $567 −$41 -7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 14 $2,069 +$167 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $7,765 +$1,103 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $150 +$4 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $200 +$38 +19%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $1,511 +$122 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $80 +$77 +96%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $678 −$678 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $2,420 +$540 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $130 −$71 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $3,344 −$364 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $200 −$29 -14%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $36 +$1 +4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $30 −$21 -71%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $31 +$6 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $518 +$179 +35%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $582 +$14 +2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $2,477 +$194 +8%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $702 −$702 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 10 $162 +$17 +10%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $17 +$28 +166%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $11,837 +$2,551 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,467 +$166 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $490 +$59 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,173 −$1,058 -90%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $120 −$107 -89%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $208 +$5 +2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $601 +$240 +40%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 07 $663 +$145 +22%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 07 $179 +$154 +86%
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Jun 07 $945 +$233 +25%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $1,850 +$780 +42%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 07 $260 +$1,066 +410%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $3,503 +$473 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,397 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,676 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $77 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $4,044 51m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $99 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $5,067 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,811 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $6,877 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $217 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 100¢ $241 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $400 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $396 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $606 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $244 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $48 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $2,561 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67,352.23 · official $66,405.40 · 2059 history records