Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93ab…fc4f crypto 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$336 (-6%) realized −$321 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%53W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day53.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$591
sports 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 48% -18.1%
≤30d 107 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 48% -18.1%
≤90d 107 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 48% -18.1%
all 107 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 48% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 48% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 48% -25.9%
15% -35.3% 45% -33.1%
20% -41.6% 43% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$42 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$321
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses53 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage7d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day53.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 61¢ 42¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $154 +$84 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $77 +$57 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$41 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$26 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$66 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$13 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$23 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $67 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$11 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $134 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $23 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.84 · official $61.07 · 400 history records