Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93ac…2761 sports 595 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$11,251 (+9%) realized −$12,718 · open −$643
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%343W / 243L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day397.6pace
Fees−$1,578est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days−$17,981
14 days−$12,718
30 days−$12,718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$13,359
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 496 -1.1% -10.5% 58% 58% -25.6%
≤30d 586 +0.4% -9.2% 59% 58% -19.3%
≤90d 586 +0.4% -9.2% 59% 58% -19.3%
all 586 +0.4% -9.2% 59% 58% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover397.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 58% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 57% -27.0%
15% -25.8% 44% -34.1%
20% -33.1% 33% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$189 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$7,888
Realized−$12,718
Unrealized−$643
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses343 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,578
Open positions10
Markets (closed)586 / 595
History coverage7d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day397.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 586 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Boston Red Sox 55¢ 80¢ $864 $1,242 +$378 (+44%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Texas Rangers 55¢ 34¢ $1,694 $1,054 −$639 (-38%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Boston Red Sox 64¢ 66¢ $963 $995 +$32 (+3%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Under 59¢ 64¢ $865 $950 +$84 (+10%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 64¢ 74¢ $720 $836 +$116 (+16%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 59¢ 52¢ $598 $528 −$69 (-12%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Over 63¢ 26¢ $1,171 $485 −$686 (-59%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Under 53¢ 74¢ $305 $425 +$120 (+40%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 48¢ 26¢ $619 $336 −$282 (-46%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Texas Rangers 65¢ 68¢ $321 $335 +$14 (+4%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 56¢ 48¢ $358 $304 −$54 (-15%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Texas Rangers 44¢ 20¢ $532 $250 −$282 (-53%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 46¢ 16¢ $388 $138 −$250 (-64%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 56¢ 42¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 44¢ 6¢ $28 $4 −$23 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $201 +$135 +67%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$11 +70%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$2 +78%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 +$12 +38%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 15 $412 −$412 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $452 +$132 +29%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $2,311 +$781 +34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $3,317 +$2,012 +61%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $33 +$13 +39%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 +$37 +120%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 14 $59 +$31 +53%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $57 +$35 +62%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $281 −$56 -20%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $227 −$227 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +69%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $506 +$343 +68%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 14 $11 +$3 +26%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $14 +$19 +133%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 14 $42 +$11 +26%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $81 +$34 +42%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 14 $107 +$31 +29%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 14 $162 +$37 +23%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2,890 −$955 -33%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $27 +$10 +39%
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +88%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $26 +$28 +112%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $46 +$23 +51%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $354 +$122 +34%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 14 $399 −$399 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 14 $64 +$17 +26%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $197 +$139 +70%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 14 $403 +$132 +33%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $310 −$260 -84%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $553 −$550 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $12 +$4 +36%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 14 $505 +$220 +44%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $1,538 +$793 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +35%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 14 $24 −$19 -79%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 14 $38 +$41 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 70¢ $58 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $46 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 78¢ $414 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 64¢ $65 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $3 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 64¢ $104 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 64¢ $26 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 64¢ $7 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $77 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $15 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $19 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $2 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $2 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $8 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $2 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 78¢ $21 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 64¢ $21 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 78¢ $42 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 64¢ $11 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $3 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 65¢ $6 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 65¢ $26 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,888.36 · official $7,888.36 (match) · 3500 history records