Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x93b1…7821 other 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$601 (+2%) realized +$595 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate93%163W / 12L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$19
14 days+$84
30 days+$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$398
sports 45% +$185
world 2% +$22
crypto 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.1% -8.6% 92% 12% -9.9%
≤30d 77 +4.2% -5.7% 94% 19% -7.7%
≤90d 175 +3.4% -6.4% 93% 17% -7.7%
all 175 +3.4% -6.4% 93% 17% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 17% -7.7%
10% -15.4% 5% -16.5%
15% -23.6% 3% -24.6%
20% -31.1% 1% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$58 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$595
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses163 / 12
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 176
History coverage58d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $100 +$14 +14%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $200 +$7 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 +$10 +3%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $400 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $200 +$11 +6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$7 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$5 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$10 +14%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $200 +$7 +4%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $200 +$11 +5%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $112 +$9 +8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $300 +$8 +3%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $300 +$7 +2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$3 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $55 +$11 +20%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 +$12 +6%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $300 +$9 +3%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 11 $200 +$5 +3%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 10 $30 +$3 +11%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $300 +$6 +2%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $300 +$10 +3%
Exact Score: Denmark 3 - 0 Ukraine? Jun 08 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $201 +$21 +11%
Spread: Denmark (-2.5) Jun 07 $100 −$41 -41%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $35 +$6 +17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$13 +43%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina? Jun 06 $200 +$8 +4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $200 +$4 +2%
Spread: Republic of Ireland (-1.5) Jun 06 $200 +$6 +3%
Exact Score: Hungary 2 - 2 Finland? Jun 05 $170 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: Georgia 3 - 0 Bahrain? Jun 05 $60 +$5 +8%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 04 $50 +$5 +11%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Greece? Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Slovenia 2 - 2 Cyprus? Jun 04 $200 +$6 +3%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Denmark? Jun 03 $45 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 03 $50 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 100¢ $115 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 100¢ $107 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 93¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 87¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY No 97¢ $200 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $300 26h
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $408 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $212 28h
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 98¢ $400 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $200 29h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $200 42h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $206 47h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $200 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $80 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $207 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $200 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $70 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 95¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 100¢ $211 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 95¢ $200 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $121 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $308 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $112 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $300 3d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $307 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? SELL No 100¢ $208 4d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $300 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY No 96¢ $200 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $309 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.33 · official $106.33 (match) · 383 history records