Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x93b2…164b crypto 1255 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$675 (-7%) realized −$675 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%623W / 463L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day155.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,867
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 513 +2.3% -7.4% 36% 36% +18.3%
≤30d 1086 +34.7% +21.9% 57% 57% +38.1%
≤90d 1086 +34.7% +21.9% 57% 57% +38.1%
all 1086 +34.7% +21.9% 57% 57% +38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.9% 57% +38.1%
10% ← realistic here +10.2% 57% +24.9%
15% -0.4% 57% +12.8%
20% -10.2% 57% +1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$675
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses623 / 463
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1086 / 1255
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day155.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1086 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +440%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +935%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +504%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +318%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $16 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $16 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records