Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93b5…3b18 world 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$14
politics 25% $0
other 24% −$8
sports 10% −$6
crypto 3% $0
finance 1% −$10
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 20 -1.4% -10.8% 30% 5% -10.1%
≤90d 65 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 6% -9.6%
all 79 +5.6% -4.5% 34% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 11% -9.9%
10% -13.6% 8% -18.5%
15% -22.0% 8% -26.4%
20% -29.6% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage524d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $58 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 +$5 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $25 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $1 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $46 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $33 −$10 -31%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $53 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $4 +$3 +73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $30 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $2 $0 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $34 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $3 $0 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $24 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $30 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $25 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 96¢ $28 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $22 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $14 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $22 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.72 · official $31.20 · 308 history records