Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

93 0x93b6…91ce sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$1,168 (+33%) realized +$1,169 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$159per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$203

7 days+$191

14 days+$757

30 days+$757

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+2.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+13.9%	+3.1%	54%	54%	+3.6%
≤30d	15	+47.7%	+33.6%	60%	60%	+34.1%
≤90d	15	+47.7%	+33.6%	60%	60%	+34.1%
all	21	+13.2%	+2.4%	48%	48%	+16.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.4%	48%	+16.7%
10%	-7.4%	48%	+5.5%
15%	-16.3%	43%	-4.7%
20%	-24.5%	38%	-14.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +35% → late -7% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$175 vs −$79 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage

Net worth$264

Realized+$1,169

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage594d

Avg bet$159

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$265	$264	−$1 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$310	+$203	+66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$105	−$103	-98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 20	$225	−$225	-100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 18	$126	+$100	+79%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$26	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$16	+303%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$336	+$167	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 16	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 16	$27	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$48	+185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$19	+72%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$170	+$248	+146%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$82	+$318	+388%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)	Dec 14	$222	−$222	-100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner	Dec 14	$144	−$144	-100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner	Dec 14	$86	−$86	-100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3)	Dec 13	$218	−$18	-8%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner	Dec 13	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Dec 07	$964	+$603	+63%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$271	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$513	34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$202	46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	59¢	$108	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Aurora Gaming	43¢	$105	3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY 9z	27¢	$225	4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	SELL Aurora Gaming	100¢	$226	4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Aurora Gaming	55¢	$126	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	79¢	$101	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Down	78¢	$21	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$5	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$503	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$26	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$27	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$336	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$75	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$26	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$44	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$26	6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY 9z	40¢	$170	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	20¢	$82	8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)	BUY FaZe	36¢	$60	190d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)	BUY FaZe	36¢	$62	190d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner	BUY FaZe	4¢	$4	190d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner	BUY FaZe	10¢	$10	190d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner	BUY FaZe	18¢	$53	190d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner	BUY FaZe	18¢	$1	190d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner	BUY FaZe	33¢	$76	190d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.91 · official $263.91 (match) · 50 history records