Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
93 0x93b7…cc8e sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$44 (+21%) realized +$45 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$149
world 24% $0
other 11% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +24.8% +12.9% 44% 44% +68.5%
≤30d 9 +24.8% +12.9% 44% 44% +68.5%
≤90d 9 +24.8% +12.9% 44% 44% +68.5%
all 9 +24.8% +12.9% 44% 44% +68.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.9% 44% +68.5%
10% +2.1% 44% +52.4%
15% -7.8% 44% +37.6%
20% -16.8% 44% +24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$9 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.96 per $1 lost it wins $3.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$22 +161%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026 Jun 15 $28 +$113 +398%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $62 +$37 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 21m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $20 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-1 BUY 21¢ $51 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026 BUY 20¢ $28 26h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $62 44h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 46h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 46h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.09 · official $5.09 (match) · 16 history records