Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93bd…c1f3 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$19
other 27% −$4
crypto 16% $0
politics 13% −$3
world 8% −$2
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 38 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 0% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -12.2%
10% -20.1% 0% -20.6%
15% -27.8% 0% -28.3%
20% -34.9% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage587d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $27 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in December? Jan 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in December? Jan 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1? Feb 04 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 24-31? Feb 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Jan 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Jan 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 22 $12 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 20 $14 $0 -0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 26 $21 −$4 -20%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 26 $20 −$3 -17%
Navy vs. Army Dec 14 $52 −$1 -1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Dec 14 $43 −$2 -4%
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship? Dec 13 $91 −$3 -4%
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship? Dec 13 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Victor Wembanyama win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 11 $46 −$3 -7%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Nov 25 $83 −$1 -1%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Nov 24 $30 −$2 -5%
Coinbase top 25 app on Monday? Nov 24 $28 −$1 -5%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Nov 23 $31 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Nov 21 $39 $0 -1%
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? Nov 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Republicans control 220 seats in the House after the election? Nov 18 $28 −$2 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 30d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 62d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 62d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $27 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 92d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 93d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 122d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $24 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $2 150d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 150d
Will Solana reach $200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $6 181d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $12 182d
Will BNB dip to $400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $17 183d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $8 211d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $23 212d
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1? BUY No 98¢ $9 513d
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 24-31? BUY No 100¢ $10 513d
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? SELL No 99¢ $23 516d
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? BUY No 100¢ $23 516d
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $23 517d
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $23 517d
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? SELL No 99¢ $35 519d
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? BUY No 99¢ $35 519d
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany? SELL No 100¢ $12 521d
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany? BUY No 100¢ $12 521d
Brentford wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $14 522d
Brentford wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $14 522d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.04 · official $38.04 (match) · 86 history records