Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93bd…bbc5 sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized −$1,162 · open +$1,169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate43%58W / 78L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,950per market
Trades / day142.7pace
Fees−$4,556est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$18,273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -59.4% -63.3% 31% 11% -27.6%
≤30d 136 -30.7% -37.3% 43% 25% -14.5%
≤90d 136 -30.7% -37.3% 43% 25% -14.5%
all 136 -30.7% -37.3% 43% 25% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.3% 25% -14.5%
10% -43.3% 15% -22.6%
15% ← realistic here -48.8% 7% -30.1%
20% -53.8% 4% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$2,957) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$605 vs −$858 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$4,691
Realized−$1,162
Unrealized+$1,169
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses58 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$4,556
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 117
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$2,950
Trades / day142.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 73¢ 100¢ $3,046 $4,199 +$1,152 (+38%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 59¢ 62¢ $476 $492 +$16 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 17 $1,116 −$1,620 -145%
Will Team Spirit win DreamLeague Season 29? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $462 −$462 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,278 −$2,194 -172%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $110 −$265 -241%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $71 −$110 -155%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $616 −$302 -49%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $78 −$448 -574%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 17 $6 −$38 -636%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,639 −$1,639 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$671 -2234%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $564 −$1,356 -240%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $548 −$748 -136%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $788 −$872 -111%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 17 $97 −$719 -742%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $327 −$327 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $3,616 +$384 +11%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $465 +$35 +8%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $4,378 −$1,385 -32%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $8,009 −$1,264 -16%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,431 +$144 +10%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $598 +$11 +2%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $1,838 +$27 +2%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,674 +$503 +19%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,928 +$255 +9%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4,227 +$686 +16%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $1,367 +$132 +10%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,947 +$425 +14%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,728 +$48 +3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $6,934 +$2,179 +31%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2,523 +$162 +6%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6,440 +$1,324 +21%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5,331 +$1,789 +34%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $6,006 +$1,246 +21%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $9,525 +$1,512 +16%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $7,192 −$1,325 -18%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $4,875 −$538 -11%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $6,851 −$200 -3%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,093 +$453 +22%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2,169 −$250 -12%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5,405 +$1,301 +24%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $3,998 +$1,552 +39%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5,724 −$5,343 -93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $5,175 +$1,625 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 92¢ $27 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 92¢ $58 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 92¢ $88 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 92¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 92¢ $45 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $80 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $49 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $116 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 94¢ $235 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 92¢ $110 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $225 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 88¢ $88 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 77¢ $38 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 77¢ $149 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 67¢ $169 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 59¢ $203 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 51¢ $67 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 51¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 51¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 51¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 52¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 52¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 49¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 48¢ $161 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 47¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,690.78 · official $4,690.78 (match) · 3500 history records