Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

93 0x93be…5f73 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$299 · open −$251

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +161% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +136% what you keep after slip

Net edge+136%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1,330per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$3,525now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+136.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+110.3%	+90.3%	100%	100%	+90.3%
≤30d	1	+110.3%	+90.3%	100%	100%	+90.3%
≤90d	1	+110.3%	+90.3%	100%	100%	+90.3%
all	2	+161.4%	+136.5%	100%	100%	+109.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+136.5%	100%	+109.9%
10%	+113.9%	100%	+89.8%
15%	+93.2%	100%	+71.5%
20%	+74.3%	100%	+54.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +110% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +161% · $-wt +132% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$70 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage

Net worth$3,525

Realized+$299

Unrealized−$251

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage152d

Avg bet$1,330

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	27¢	26¢	$3,776	$3,525	−$251 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas	Jun 19	$83	+$92	+110%
Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January?	Jan 30	$22	+$48	+212%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas	SELL Texas Super Kings	97¢	$80	1h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas	SELL Texas Super Kings	97¢	$95	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY No	29¢	$657	3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY No	27¢	$3,229	3h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas	BUY Texas Super Kings	45¢	$83	8h
Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January?	BUY Yes	32¢	$2	151d
Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January?	BUY Yes	32¢	$21	151d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,525.30 · official $3,525.30 (match) · 8 history records