Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

93 0x93bf…d260 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$30 (+9%) realized +$30 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day24.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+6.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+17.4%	+6.2%	48%	43%	-23.9%
≤30d	21	+17.4%	+6.2%	48%	43%	-23.9%
≤90d	21	+17.4%	+6.2%	48%	43%	-23.9%
all	21	+17.4%	+6.2%	48%	43%	-23.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover24.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+6.2%	43%	-23.9%
10% ← realistic here	-3.9%	43%	-31.2%
15%	-13.2%	38%	-37.8%
20%	-21.7%	38%	-43.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +52% → late -14% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.72 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$30

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day24.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$16	+62%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$14	+266%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 22	$25	+$8	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$20	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 22	$25	+$2	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$19	+351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$4	+73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$10	+198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$3	-65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$10	+94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 21	$11	+$28	+266%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$26	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$26	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$26	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$26	54m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$26	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$26	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$5	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	SELL Down	2¢	$2	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$5	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	23h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	24h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran?	BUY Yes	73¢	$5	24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records