Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93bf…a572 sports 387 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%240W / 146L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Fees−$671est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$501
14 days−$337
30 days−$707
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$490
other 1% +$12
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -0.6% -10.1% 49% 35% -15.0%
≤30d 207 +2.2% -7.5% 58% 42% -12.4%
≤90d 386 +2.7% -7.1% 62% 40% -10.2%
all 386 +2.7% -7.1% 62% 40% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 40% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 14% -18.8%
15% -24.1% 5% -26.6%
20% -31.5% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$31 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses240 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$671
Open positions1
Markets (closed)386 / 387
History coverage56d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Mattia Bellucci 67¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $2 $0 +17%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $242 −$54 -22%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $455 −$39 -9%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $116 −$8 -7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 −$2 -5%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $159 −$21 -13%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $173 +$5 +3%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $152 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $42 +$8 +19%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $70 +$15 +21%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $50 +$19 +38%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $219 −$28 -13%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $261 −$14 -5%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $136 −$12 -9%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $120 −$32 -26%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $95 −$11 -12%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $52 −$3 -5%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $78 −$20 -26%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $359 −$32 -9%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $3 −$2 -49%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $26 −$14 -54%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $32 −$5 -17%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $39 −$1 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Carolina Alves Jun 13 $8 +$1 +17%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $16 −$1 -6%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $8 +$1 +16%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $20 −$7 -34%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $353 −$97 -28%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $136 −$49 -36%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $150 −$25 -16%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $200 +$16 +8%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $59 +$21 +36%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $126 +$22 +18%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $277 −$12 -4%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $171 −$1 -1%
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Carolina Alves Jun 12 $75 +$14 +18%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 12 $161 −$60 -38%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $91 +$3 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $150 −$1 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $151 +$24 +16%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $76 +$22 +29%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $106 +$25 +24%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $100 +$22 +22%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $181 −$48 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 67¢ $3 19m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 100¢ $3 32m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 85¢ $2 49m
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Joaquin Aguilar 99¢ $22 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 92¢ $9 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 81¢ $6 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 81¢ $4 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Joaquin Aguilar 71¢ $21 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 83¢ $25 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Joaquin Aguilar 70¢ $28 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Joaquin Aguilar 70¢ $0 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 69¢ $7 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 62¢ $7 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 58¢ $11 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Gustavo Almeida 52¢ $39 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 68¢ $20 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 68¢ $5 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 63¢ $25 38h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Gustavo Almeida 54¢ $26 39h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 67¢ $8 39h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 68¢ $12 39h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 68¢ $2 39h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 68¢ $11 39h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Joaquin Aguilar 32¢ $8 39h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 69¢ $17 39h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Gustavo Almeida 31¢ $8 39h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Gustavo Almeida 48¢ $11 39h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Gustavo Almeida 72¢ $25 39h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 86¢ $22 39h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 86¢ $0 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.90 · official $2.90 (match) · 3091 history records