Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93c4…4999 crypto 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$204 (-3%) realized −$204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%64W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$130
14 days−$130
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$426
sports 14% +$11
other 9% +$37
politics 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -74.2% -76.6% 6% 6% -58.0%
≤30d 17 -74.2% -76.6% 6% 6% -58.0%
≤90d 164 +3.6% -6.3% 39% 30% -14.5%
all 164 +3.6% -6.3% 39% 30% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 30% -14.5%
10% -15.3% 26% -22.7%
15% -23.5% 23% -30.1%
20% -31.0% 18% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses64 / 100
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 166
History coverage75d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$22 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $55 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $28 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $55 −$40 -73%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $170 −$5 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 22 $32 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 22 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $90 +$30 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 22 $209 −$192 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 22 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 22 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 22 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 22 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 22 $39 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 22 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 22 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 22 $44 −$35 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 22 $75 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 22 $17 +$56 +330%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $26 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $9 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 47h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $27 47h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $7 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 12¢ $7 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 29¢ $7 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 80¢ $50 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $20 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $5 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 461 history records