Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93c5…7823 crypto 739 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,678 (-18%) realized −$7,729 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%398W / 341L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,781
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -1.3% -10.7% 56% 56% -10.8%
≤30d 431 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 53% -16.1%
≤90d 739 -4.1% -13.2% 54% 54% -13.5%
all 739 -4.1% -13.2% 54% 54% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 54% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 54% -21.8%
15% -29.1% 54% -29.4%
20% -36.1% 54% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$56 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$7,729
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses398 / 341
Open positions1
Markets (closed)739 / 739
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 57¢ 100¢ $68 $119 +$51 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$20 -212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $71 +$51 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$26 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $73 +$55 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $109 +$83 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $72 +$54 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $73 +$53 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$31 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$39 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $62 +$48 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$32 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $58 +$45 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $39 +$30 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$30 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $48 +$37 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$30 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$36 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$34 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$32 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$32 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$48 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$46 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$46 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$30 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$29 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$29 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $40 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $60 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.00 · official $118.94 (match) · 3500 history records