Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
93 0x93cb…3485 sports 359 markets active 0h ago coverage 344d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 344d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,403 (+6%) realized +$5,388 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%158W / 195L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$1,719est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$393
14 days−$150
30 days+$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$4,198
other 1% +$371
politics 0% −$48
world 0% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.7% -13.8% 44% 44% -28.2%
≤30d 65 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 32% -6.3%
≤90d 201 +2.3% -7.4% 45% 30% -4.0%
all 353 -0.4% -9.8% 45% 32% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 32% -4.0%
10% -18.5% 20% -13.2%
15% -26.4% 16% -21.6%
20% -33.6% 14% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$49 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$475
Realized+$5,388
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses158 / 195
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,719
Open positions6
Markets (closed)353 / 359
History coverage344d ⚠
Avg bet$257
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Antonia Ruzic 30¢ 32¢ $345 $360 +$15 (+4%)
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic Mika Stojsavljevic 15¢ 14¢ $47 $43 −$4 (-8%)
Wimbledon WTA: Nadia Podoroska vs Marta Kostyuk Nadia Podoroska 9¢ 8¢ $29 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+56%)
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+103%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Wilson Leite Jun 26 $149 −$49 -33%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 24 $15 −$2 -15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli Jun 23 $792 −$424 -54%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini Jun 23 $93 +$89 +96%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $811 −$85 -10%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $98 +$13 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $32 +$34 +105%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 21 $251 +$40 +16%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 21 $217 −$8 -4%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 17 $91 −$20 -22%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $794 −$124 -16%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $500 +$86 +17%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 15 $671 +$79 +12%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $1,317 +$167 +13%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $46 −$3 -6%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $732 +$160 +22%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $49 −$49 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$46 +44%
Cattolica (Doubles): Bueno/Meza vs Jong/Hermans Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $574 +$320 +56%
Ilkley (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Riedi/Rocha Jun 11 $357 −$350 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $3,247 −$58 -2%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Mboko/Williams Jun 11 $111 +$2 +2%
Set Handicap: Mboko/Williams (-1.5) vs Fernandez/Siegemund (+1.5) Jun 11 $66 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $1,271 +$64 +5%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $193 −$51 -26%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $551 −$125 -23%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $1,377 −$184 -13%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $72 +$636 +882%
Libema Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Anouk Koevermans Jun 07 $1,154 −$66 -6%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $60 +$40 +67%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $183 +$39 +21%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $179 +$9 +5%
Foggia: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Tatiana Pieri Jun 05 $99 +$4 +4%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Jun 05 $400 −$127 -32%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $67 −$67 -99%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $58 −$42 -73%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $254 −$20 -8%
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $43 +$23 +55%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 04 $52 −$5 -9%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $20 −$19 -98%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Martin Krumich Jun 02 $442 +$17 +4%
Perugia: Cezar Cretu vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 01 $588 +$20 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Completed Match: Siegemund/Zvonareva vs Bucsa/Melic May 31 $218 +$3 +1%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 30 $97 −$94 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $125 +$68 +54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $148 −$28 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Nadia Podoroska vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Nadia Podoroska 9¢ $30 20m
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 32¢ $24 40m
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 32¢ $56 41m
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 32¢ $122 42m
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic BUY Mika Stojsavljevic 15¢ $48 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 28¢ $146 1h
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 18h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Wilson Leite SELL Wilson Leite 13¢ $65 18h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Wilson Leite SELL Wilson Leite 13¢ $29 18h
Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 20h
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 20h
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 21h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Wilson Leite BUY Wilson Leite 16¢ $149 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 13¢ $13 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 15¢ $1 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 15¢ $14 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 55¢ $36 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 44¢ $10 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 50¢ $88 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 44¢ $39 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 18¢ $20 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 18¢ $1 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 18¢ $1 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 18¢ $4 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 18¢ $3 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 18¢ $9 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 15¢ $20 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 15¢ $10 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 15¢ $4 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cerundolo/Carabelli 7¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $475.10 · official $463.75 · 3500 history records