Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93cc…6ffc sports 398 markets active 2d ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,418 (+0%) realized +$8,412 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%386W / 12L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5,479per market
Trades / day97.9pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$2,067
politics 23% +$21
world 3% +$660
other 2% +$81
crypto 2% +$137
culture 1% +$15
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 360 +5.7% -4.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 398 +5.3% -4.7% 97% 1% -9.4%
all 398 +5.3% -4.7% 97% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 1% -9.4%
10% -13.8% 1% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -22.1% 1% -26.0%
20% -29.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$5,564) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$0 · ×139421.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17938940.7 per $1 lost it wins $17938940.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$8,412
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses386 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions3
Markets (closed)398 / 398
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$5,479
Trades / day97.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? No 69¢ 94¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+36%)
Obama divorce before 2027? No 85¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $20,404 +$579 +3%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $2,302 +$2 +0%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $13,344 +$13 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10,890 +$110 +1%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8,786 +$9 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2,999 +$3 +0%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $4,197 +$4 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,911 +$3 +0%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for Jun 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $665 +$1 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11,988 +$12 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,841 +$2 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,876 +$3 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $539 +$1 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,237 +$2 +0%
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $653 +$1 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1,994 +$2 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12,987 +$13 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,962 +$4 +0%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $766 +$1 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10,989 +$11 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,499 +$1 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4,091 +$4 +0%
Will Netherlands's Starting 11 include a player not listed above? Jun 14 $212 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $447 $0 +0%
Will Kaishu Sano be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Yukinari Sugawara be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1,211 +$1 +0%
Will Junya Ito be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Keito Nakamura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $173 +$2 +1%
Will Kento Shiogai be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Takehiro Tomiyasu be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Teun Koopmeiners be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ayase Ueda be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Jan Paul van Hecke be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $72 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $566 +$1 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $310 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $18,810 +$190 +1%
Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $565 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18,981 +$19 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-6.5) vs ex-RUBY (+6.5) Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $9,880 +$10 +0%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $9,690 +$10 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9,690 +$10 +0%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $3,029 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $446 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $486 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,919 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,948 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,891 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $645 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $817 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $488 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $488 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $976 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,466 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $637 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $291 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $151 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $212 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $105 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $977 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $978 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $979 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $980 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $488 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 100¢ $9,540 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.05 · official $55.05 (match) · 3500 history records