Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93d3…ba6b other 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$38
sports 21% −$17
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
economics 6% −$6
world 4% −$2
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 186 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)239 / 240
History coverage128d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 97¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $289 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $238 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $218 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $337 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $315 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $872 −$2 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $282 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $184 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $138 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $201 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $537 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $169 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $245 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $387 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $201 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $47 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 8h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 9h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 11h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 12h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 23h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 28h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 29h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 30h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 33h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 35h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 35h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 36h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $48 39h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 40h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 42h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 44h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.54 · official $46.54 (match) · 1303 history records