Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
93 0x93d8…028c other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+0%) realized +$57 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate20%29W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,220per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days+$71
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$132
other 33% −$14
sports 20% +$187
economics 2% −$4
culture 2% −$3
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 +11.0% +0.4% 18% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 102 -3.6% -12.7% 12% 7% -9.9%
all 144 +4.6% -5.3% 20% 15% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 15% -9.5%
10% -14.4% 15% -18.2%
15% -22.7% 13% -26.1%
20% -30.2% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,845) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$10 · ×4.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,317
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses29 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,220
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,318 $1,317 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $313 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,030 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,257 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $5,825 −$7 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,427 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $328 +$2 +1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,157 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,442 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,347 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $59 +$55 +93%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $57 +$56 +97%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,073 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $324 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $503 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,253 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,593 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $50 +$50 +101%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,281 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $694 −$1 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $49 +$63 +129%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,824 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $2,275 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $3,108 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $2,553 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $2,295 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,202 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,209 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,318 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $313 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $313 3h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,271 42h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,272 44h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,422 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,424 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,422 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,424 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,431 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,433 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,427 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,429 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,426 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,427 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $328 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,410 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,412 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,419 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,422 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,335 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,337 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,334 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,336 8d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,440 9d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,442 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,433 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,435 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,431 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,433 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,317.42 · official $1,317.42 (match) · 488 history records